The IPO Machine Shifts Into Higher Gear — But the Lockup Clock Is Ticking

The US IPO market just delivered its biggest week of the third quarter, and the numbers tell a story of acceleration — with a clock ticking underneath.

SK hynix, South Korea’s second-largest company, raised $26.5 billion in its Nasdaq debut on July 10, pricing ADRs at $149 and closing the first session at $168.01, up 13%{{cite:1987334ecd98}}. It was the largest foreign IPO in US history{{cite:5c7bc5a1bcb1}}. Chairman Chey Tae-won told CNBC that HBM demand is “enormous” and that even after announcing a plan to double capacity within five years, customers said it was not enough{{cite:1987334ecd98}}.

That deal landed on top of a first half that already shattered records. Through July 2, the US saw 194 IPOs raise $155.8 billion{{cite:70c153a7c352}}. SpaceX alone accounted for $86.2 billion of that, but even stripped of the largest listing ever, the remaining $69.9 billion was more than double the $31.6 billion printed year-to-date in 2025{{cite:70c153a7c352}}. The SEC’s own statistics show 99 IPOs raising over $22 billion in Q1 2026 alone, an 86% increase in proceeds versus Q1 2025, alongside 264 follow-on offerings raising $44.2 billion{{cite:11450e245079}}.

Morgan Stanley characterized the environment as a “larger, broader IPO market” taking shape, with bigger and later-stage companies coming public across sectors{{cite:ca3bf0f94828}}. Dealogic’s IPO Health Index for the Americas is now near post-2021 highs{{cite:70c153a7c352}}. Globally, IPO proceeds tripled to $178 billion in the first half{{cite:ca3bf0f94828}}.

The Pipeline Behind SK hynix

Csquare Inc. (proposed: CSQR), a Brookfield-backed data center operator based in Coppell, Texas, set terms on July 6 for a $1.3 billion IPO — 50 million shares at $23 to $27, targeting a valuation of up to $4.18 billion{{cite:77bb7fb42766}}. The company owns and operates 64 data centers across the US, Canada, and the UK, and the deal is a direct play on AI infrastructure demand{{cite:77bb7fb42766}}.

Behind Csquare sit the two most anticipated filings of the cycle. Anthropic confidentially submitted draft S-1 paperwork on June 1, followed by OpenAI on June 8{{cite:37e960adc11f}}. Anthropic is reportedly on pace for its first profitable quarter, with projected Q2 revenue of $10.9 billion following a $65 billion funding round at a $965 billion valuation{{cite:37e960adc11f}}. OpenAI has said timing is undecided and that “it may be a while” because certain strategic initiatives are easier to execute as a private company{{cite:37e960adc11f}}.

ECM bankers cited by Dealogic expect Anthropic to come first, with OpenAI potentially following later this year or in 2027{{cite:70c153a7c352}}. One banker noted that Alphabet raised $50 billion “in roughly a two-day market” and argued that if institutional and retail investors continue to back the AI build-out thesis, “there is enough US-based capital to support much more ECM issuance in 2H”{{cite:70c153a7c352}}.

The trajectory is clear. The harder question is whether the supply side cooperates.

The SpaceX Lockup Overhang

SpaceX raised over $86 billion in its IPO, the largest on record, but only about 4% of the company’s shares are currently trading freely{{cite:710e71ed234c}}. The company structured its lockup with phased release valves rather than a single 180-day cliff, allowing insiders to sell portions of their stock in the weeks and months after the IPO{{cite:710e71ed234c}}. By December, the floating supply could rise to roughly 40% of shares{{cite:710e71ed234c}}.

The first tranche of lockup expirations began in July{{cite:710e71ed234c}}. SpaceX is expected to report its first quarterly earnings as a public company in late July or early August, a window that overlaps with the initial lockup releases{{cite:70c153a7c352}}. One banker cautioned directly: “If SpaceX starts to trade down that could close the door for other AI issuers”{{cite:70c153a7c352}}.

This is the forecast’s pivot point. The base case — roughly 60/40 — is that SpaceX’s first earnings do not trigger a sharp sell-off, lockup selling is absorbed by the persistent retail bid, and the Anthropic IPO proceeds on schedule in the fall. The 40 case involves a SpaceX earnings miss or guidedown that coincides with the first wave of insider selling, widening the float and pressuring the stock at the same moment that sentiment around LLM providers is already fraying. In that scenario, both Anthropic and OpenAI could find their windows narrowing.

A US investor quoted by Dealogic captured the risk succinctly: “Those companies don’t have the idiosyncratic features that the SpaceX setup had”{{cite:70c153a7c352}}. The concern is that Anthropic and OpenAI, both seeking to list at a time when skepticism toward large language model providers is growing, are more vulnerable to a sentiment shift than the SpaceX equity story — which fused orbital data centers, xAI compute rental, and retail FOMO into a narrative that overwhelmed traditional valuation analysis{{cite:70c153a7c352}}.

Secondary Offerings: The Quiet Supply

While IPOs dominate headlines, follow-on issuance has been running at a brisk clip. The SEC reported 264 follow-on registered offerings raising $44.2 billion in Q1 2026 alone, up from 250 offerings and $40.4 billion in Q1 2025{{cite:11450e245079}}.

Recent deals illustrate the breadth:

Sable Offshore’s concurrent stock-and-convertible deal is notable for its structure — the company upsized the equity portion from a planned $100 million to roughly $100 million in shares plus $300 million in convertibles, pricing 32.5 million shares at $3.08 each{{cite:fa4000c61044}}. Rackspace’s $250 million at-the-market facility, filed with Goldman Sachs as sales agent, represents the kind of slow-drip issuance that adds to float without a single priced event{{cite:4da36b56d348}}.

Buybacks: The Counterweight

On the other side of the ledger, repurchase activity continues. EquipmentShare (EQPT) authorized a $500 million buyback on July 9 while simultaneously raising its 2026 rental segment revenue growth outlook to 33% at the midpoint, up from 29%{{cite:13432982f846}}. AmpliTech Group announced a $10 million repurchase program and terminated its existing ATM equity offering — a signal that the company prefers to return capital rather than raise it at current prices{{cite:43b292a7e302}}. SRX Global authorized a repurchase of up to 10 million shares, or 50% of shares outstanding{{cite:43b292a7e302}}. Vermilion Energy renewed its normal course issuer bid on the TSX{{cite:43b292a7e302}}.

None of these approach the mega-buyback scale seen in 2024–2025, but they represent a consistent counterweight to the net supply from IPOs and secondaries. The tension in H2 will be whether buyback demand from cash-rich incumbents can absorb the float expansion from SpaceX lockup releases and the Anthropic/OpenAI pipeline simultaneously.

The Structural Backdrop

Scott Rubner’s 1H 2026 market structure review at Citadel Securities frames the environment in which all of this issuance must be absorbed. The top ten companies now account for nearly 40% of the S&P 500, near record concentration{{cite:b6adfa3b6919}}. Semiconductor companies represent nearly one-fifth of the index, the highest share on record, having quadrupled their weight since June 2020{{cite:b6adfa3b6919}}.

ETFs attracted $1.2 trillion in net inflows year-to-date through June, 45% ahead of last year’s record pace{{cite:b6adfa3b6919}}. Retail activity shattered previous records, with May and June daily volumes running 65% above 2025 levels, and June 12 marking the largest single day of retail net buying ever observed on Citadel’s platform{{cite:b6adfa3b6919}}. Retail has become a persistent structural bid, buying nearly 3.5x the average daily amount on SPX down days{{cite:b6adfa3b6919}}.

But leverage is concentrating. One out of every three listed options now expires the same day, and nearly half of all retail options volume is in zero-days-to-expiration contracts{{cite:b6adfa3b6919}}. Leveraged ETF assets reached a record $218 billion, up 60% since March alone{{cite:b6adfa3b6919}}. One-month equity financing spreads have tightened to as high as 138 basis points above SOFR, a signal that balance sheet capacity is becoming constrained{{cite:b6adfa3b6919}}.

Semiconductor implied volatility has entered a new regime: the average 3-month IV of the ten largest semiconductor companies has more than doubled from 32% in 2016 to nearly 72% today{{cite:b6adfa3b6919}}. Nearly 70% of Nasdaq rallies in May were accompanied by higher implied volatility, the highest frequency since 2005{{cite:b6adfa3b6919}}. This spot-up/vol-up pattern is unusual — it means investors are paying more for upside protection even as the market rises, a signature of positioning that is both concentrated and leveraged.

What to Watch Next

1. SpaceX first earnings (late July / early August) — The single most important event for the H2 IPO pipeline. If the stock holds above its $135 IPO price through the first lockup release, the window for Anthropic stays open. If it breaks, the supply overhang widens.

2. Csquare (CSQR) pricing — The Brookfield-backed data center operator’s $1.3 billion deal is the next real test of whether AI-infrastructure demand extends beyond semiconductors into colocation and real assets. Watch for pricing within or above the $23–$27 range.

3. Anthropic S-1 public filing — The confidential submission was made June 1. The public filing — with financials — will set the terms for the fall’s largest expected IPO and establish the valuation benchmark OpenAI will have to navigate.

4. SpaceX lockup tranche schedule — The phased releases mean the float expands incrementally rather than in a single cliff. Track each tranche’s size and the absorption rate. The December target of ~40% float is the terminal condition.

5. European IPO pricing gap — KNDS was pulled because family shareholders wanted €12.5 billion and investors demanded a 30% discount to peers{{cite:70c153a7c352}}. Digi Spain and Infracore are the next tests. If European sellers continue to refuse discounts, the US-only issuance concentration deepens.

6. Financing spreads and leverage — Equity financing spreads at 138 bps above SOFR are a quiet indicator{{cite:b6adfa3b6919}}. If they widen further, it signals that the leverage ecosystem supporting this market is running into balance-sheet constraints — the kind of plumbing issue that precedes liquidity events without making headlines first.

The base-rate read is that the pipeline holds. H1 2026’s issuance volume, the breadth of sectors coming public, the depth of retail participation, and the backlog of AI-related filings all point to continuation. The honest uncertainty is that this is the most concentrated, most levered, most retail-dependent market in modern history — and the supply test arrives just as the first earnings reports from the cycle’s defining IPO begin to land.